Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 9.195303e-05 0.000111 0.000131 0.000154 0.000180 0.000208 0.000239
2024-10-20 6.715021e-05 0.000091 0.000118 0.000151 0.000189 0.000231 0.000282
2024-10-27 5.484639e-05 0.000081 0.000112 0.000152 0.000199 0.000253 0.000318
2024-11-03 3.989684e-05 0.000066 0.000099 0.000142 0.000195 0.000258 0.000336
2024-11-10 3.613601e-05 0.000064 0.000100 0.000150 0.000212 0.000286 0.000379
2024-11-17 2.835361e-05 0.000055 0.000093 0.000145 0.000214 0.000296 0.000402
2024-11-24 2.173942e-05 0.000047 0.000085 0.000139 0.000212 0.000301 0.000417
2024-12-01 1.681993e-05 0.000041 0.000079 0.000135 0.000212 0.000309 0.000436
2024-12-08 1.312990e-05 0.000036 0.000074 0.000132 0.000213 0.000317 0.000454
2024-12-15 9.685190e-06 0.000031 0.000068 0.000127 0.000212 0.000321 0.000469
2024-12-22 7.537157e-06 0.000028 0.000065 0.000126 0.000214 0.000331 0.000489
2024-12-29 5.862126e-06 0.000025 0.000062 0.000125 0.000218 0.000342 0.000511
2025-01-05 3.636650e-06 0.000021 0.000058 0.000125 0.000227 0.000365 0.000556
2025-01-12 1.804712e-06 0.000016 0.000053 0.000121 0.000230 0.000381 0.000593
2025-01-19 9.634083e-07 0.000014 0.000050 0.000122 0.000240 0.000405 0.000640
2025-01-26 2.074033e-07 0.000010 0.000042 0.000114 0.000234 0.000407 0.000658
2025-02-02 1.078125e-07 0.000009 0.000044 0.000121 0.000252 0.000444 0.000722
2025-02-09 4.303908e-09 0.000007 0.000039 0.000117 0.000253 0.000456 0.000754
2025-02-16 NaN 0.000005 0.000035 0.000112 0.000252 0.000463 0.000778
2025-02-23 NaN 0.000003 0.000031 0.000108 0.000253 0.000474 0.000808
2025-03-02 NaN 0.000002 0.000029 0.000105 0.000254 0.000486 0.000839
2025-03-09 NaN 0.000002 0.000025 0.000101 0.000253 0.000494 0.000863
2025-03-16 NaN 0.000001 0.000023 0.000100 0.000257 0.000508 0.000897